Thai Oil Appoints Wood PLC as EPCM for $5 Billion Clean Fuel Project
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“As we transition into 2025, although business cycle dynamics remain crucial to the outlook, there will be heightened focus on policy changes in the U.S. across trade, immigration, regulatory and fiscal policies. These changes should significantly influence outcomes in the U.S. and beyond,” said Hussein Malik, head of Global Research at J.P. In addition, technological innovation and the broadening of the AI cycle is expected to remain an important driver across markets, with monetization becoming a greater focus in the coming quarter. Providing investment banking solutions, including mergers and acquisitions, capital raising and risk management, for a broad range of corporations, institutions and governments.
Oil trading involves buying and selling oil and its various derivatives in the global marketplace. This complex market operates 24 hours a day, connecting producers, refiners, traders, and end-users worldwide. Unlike traditional stock trading, oil trading deals with a physical commodity that powers industries, transportation, and everyday life. Weaknesses are particularly prevalent in relation to data on supply, stocks, and exports, as non-OECD countries have no obligation to supply data to the IEA.
Demand Factors
OPEC+ subsequently exerts considerable influence over the global market price of oil and, understandably, tends to keep it relatively high to maximize profitability. So when oil prices soared after the invasion of Ukraine, the money these companies made from selling oil and gas massively increased as well. J.P. Morgan Research’s view has remained largely unchanged over the past year, with expectations of a shift from a balanced market in 2024 to a large surplus in 2025. Crucially, these forecasts assume that OPEC+ stays put at current production levels. In Europe, the backdrop looks more challenging, with the U.S. election creating uncertainty for the credit market. Morgan Research forecasts 15 bp of widening next year to 130 bp, implying total returns of 4.5%.
They face calls to pay even more tax
These factors reduce forecast oil prices because production outpaces consumption, increasing global oil inventories. We expect OPEC+ members to continue to restrain production in 2025 and 2026 to prevent prices from falling further. Before the resurgence in U.S. oil production, drops in the price of oil were largely viewed as positive because they lowered the price of importing oil and reduced costs for the manufacturing and transport sectors. Greater discretionary income for consumer spending can further stimulate the economy. However, now that the United States has increased oil production, low oil prices can hurt U.S. oil companies and affect domestic oil industry workers.
Get data and insights on what’s driving competition in an industry and the challenges industry operators and new entrants may face, with analysis built around Porter’s Five Forces framework. Discover where business activity is most concentrated in an industry and the factors driving these trends to find opportunities and conduct regional benchmarking. “Considering these cross-currents, our baseline forecast looks for EM growth to slow from 4.1% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025.
Oil producers face profit squeeze amid shifting policy landscape
In part due to lower refining margins, the company’s earnings for the fourth quarter of 2008 nearly halved to $3.66 Billion. Shell sold its chemical and refining hub in Singapore in the past year, and it plans to close another plant in Wesseling in Germany. Kathryn Mikells, Exxon’s Chief Finance Officer, stated in an interview that the refining industry is still under pressure due to the additional fuel entering the market as a result of new refineries opening in countries all over the world.
Much of the growth in energy consumption is expected to take place in developing Asian countries, where petroleum liquids demand is expected to grow 1.7% annually through 2050, three times as fast as in the U.S. The energy conservation measures and exploration efforts prompted by high oil prices in the 1970s laid the seeds for an energy dip that followed in the 1980s and 1990s. Also, experts say OPEC’s efforts to control oil production oil profit review are key to meeting today’s energy needs.
Oil speculation thus has been a significant systemic factor contributing to the recent surge in the U.S. inflation rate. He studies how climate change and the energy transition impact financial markets, and how financial institutions are responding to a warming world. It demands agility—reinvesting today’s profits into diversified platforms, emerging technologies, and cross-sector partnerships. As the transition accelerates, energy leaders will be those bold enough to evolve ahead of the curve. If the UK government decided to tax BP and Shell on their global profits more heavily, they could potentially move their headquarters out of the country – escaping the new tax, and depriving the UK of much of the revenues they currently pay.
